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| June 2007 |
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| Equipping the Church to Win, Build and Send Students to Fulfill the Great Commission. |
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| Are We Losing Students or Focus? |
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—Jay Mooney, national youth director |
| are we losing students or focus? |
Over the last year(s), a lot of attention has been focused on the lack of student retention once they outgrow the local youth ministry. There are several surveys and studies that seem to indicate the loss rate may be anywhere from 65% to 85%. Unfortunately, it appears most of the reputable studies that have been conducted were based on faulty or incomplete data comparisons. For instance, Cecil Culbreth, one of our own A/G ministers, did a study six years ago (not to point out a problem, but to encourage a biblical foundation for youth ministry) using a 10 year period of the Assemblies of God Annual Church Ministries Reports (ACMR). Unknown to him, the ACMR information collected during the timeframe he studied, compared program to program (youth ministry to college ministry) instead of specific age group numbers. Since then, the ACMR has been changed to obtain age group statistics such as 13-17 year olds and 18-24 year olds. Based upon the program-to-program comparison, it appeared that the A/G had a 76% loss rate during the decade of the 90’s. Since the ACMR changed to age group comparison, it has become obvious that the program to program numbers requested on the ACMR during the 90’s, did not provide an accurate picture of the number of college age students attending A/G churches. Consequently, the loss rate of 76% was not accurate. Cecil Culbreth is aware of the discrepancy and in fact wrote the above material related to his study. Most of the other studies or surveys I have examined, also appear to have some faulty comparisons of which I am sure none of the people who conducted the studies or surveys tried to deceive anyone. While no longitudinal study has been conducted concerning A/G youth on the retention of students, I think we could safely conclude, based upon the current data collected on the ACMR, the loss rate is well below 45%. (Please note, this is simply a numbers to numbers comparison and should not be quoted as if an in-depth study has been made.) Please understand that I am not trying to say, “Praise God, our loss rate is below 45% instead of 66% or 85%”. Any loss is not good news. I want to communicate that we cannot base the validity of our ministry upon statistics or numbers. The validity of our ministry is based upon the authority of God’s Word. “Should I do something because stats indicate it works or should I do something because that is what God’s Word teaches?” I fear that, through statistics, youth leaders are being told we are failing to the point that some are coming to believe it. What if it’s not so? The father of modern psychology, Dr. William James, warned that “nothing is so absurd that if repeated often enough, people will believe it.” I believe many would agree that not everyone who attends church is saved. An evangelistic youth ministry may have a larger number of youth group attendees than numbers of youth attending church-wide worship. If those fringe students do not connect beyond the “crowd,” it may be that they fall short of becoming repentant, born-again believers. In such cases, it could be said that some of the “loss” is among those not won. We must be careful to differentiate between losing the “crowd” and the “Christian.” We must be careful not to categorically equate church attendance to salvation and vice versa. Nonetheless, we should always work to win the lost and disciple every young believer. Some glaring questions began to arise as I examined the frequently quoted data. The questions cause me to seriously doubt that we are losing large numbers of believing youth to the Christian faith, much less the church. Herein raises a frustration. Are we becoming too familiar and comfortable with a modern American method to create a so-called poll to prove a point, validate an interest or make news? In some cases, the poll is then used to create a “crisis” of demand. We live in a world system that propagates fear, which the Bible identifies as the work of Satan. The devil attempts to use fear to stymie and deter the believer. Ironically, I fear Satan is having a measure of success through statistical use of misapplied data; which is unfounded data carried through good people in good churches. At this point in my journey, I have come to classify and define the data around this subject in three categories: Each of these data methods has value and purpose, and some more than others. One would reason that overwhelming accurate data on a subject like “youth retention in the church (or faith) after high school” would discover support by all three categories. Yet, that is not the case on this subject. A recent May 2, 2007 article in the New York Times titled, Matters of Faith Find a New Prominence on Campus, identifies a rising trend in spiritual life on some prominent university campuses. “At Harvard these days, said Professor Peter J. Gomes, the university preacher, ‘There is probably more active religious life now than there has been in 100 years.’” The article goes on to note some other survey work. “A survey on the spiritual lives of college students, the first of its kind, showed in 2004 that more than two-thirds of 112,000 freshmen surveyed said they prayed, and that almost 80 percent believed in God. Nearly half of the freshmen said they were seeking opportunities to grow spiritually, according to the survey by the Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles.” The same article continues, “Some sociologists who study religion are skeptical that students’ attitudes have changed significantly, citing a lack of data to compare current students with those of previous generations. But even some of those concerned about the data say something has shifted.” I believe we should heed the notation of sociologists such as Christian Smith, who postulate that too often people are misusing statistics and making unsubstantiated applications and conclusions regarding overall attrition rates of post-high school age adherents to the “church”, much less the “faith”. Currently, our own ACMR adherence statistics is the only faith measurement system we have regarding the numbers of age affiliates in our churches. I greatly believe that it would be valuable to have someone from our fellowship (institution, student, etc.) do a longitudinal study that tracks our 13-23 year old A/G adherents and their experiences. While I believe that we will measure great return from the faith investment that A/G institutions provide for our students, based upon our ACMR data I believe it is unlikely we will see a 50% or higher attrition rate in our believing post-high school aged adherents. However, statistics should not be used to try and “prove” that our mission is valid. As Christian leaders, it is important that our missional motives are founded on Scripture. If we are not careful, we can lead people to see other writings and indicators as more valid than Scripture. This can lead a generation to put more faith in subjective findings over the missional objective, which is the foundational battle in American culture today. It is more important that I do “my mission” because Scripture teaches it, not simply because human studies say so. We must herald our cause “because the Bible says so” above saying “current studies say so.” Although statistical research is obviously valuable, I believe that much of the misuse of statistics comes from a passionate motive to “prove that this or that mission is valid.” It is essential that Scripture is recognized as the primary herald of validating the Christian mission to win, build and send God’s people. God is looking for objective decisions about himself based upon Scripture. The consequence of trying to relate the things of God to a subjective world is that this subjectivity may lead to conclusions that are no longer objective. It is important to note that excellent studies, such as the Steve Henderson study, may not specifically be about attrition rates. For instance, the Henderson work is a college-years study that identifies the value of Christian collegiate education over secular collegiate education. Therefore, the outcomes or statistics from the study should be understood in that context, either from the Henderson study or another study. Nonetheless, I remain desirous that belief statistics be clearly contextualized among all the rampant talk about attrition/retention rates in the evangelical church. As a national youth director, I subsequently hear (directly and indirectly) people playing the blame/shame game on youth ministry and youth leaders about so-called attrition rates among post-high school students. I believe that this categorical conclusion remains comprehensively unfounded, and in some cases ethically wrong. The circumstances surrounding the issue of youth attrition are vast. Does the away-from-home college student have a vehicle to drive to church? Is there a healthy A/G church in the college city in which the student has a sense of belonging? Etc. The loss of some students may simply hinge on the matter of community. If there is an underdeveloped ministry in the church beyond the youth years, the loss of group community will greatly affect the attendance. A recent Group Magazine article suggests that many churches lack a purposeful college ministry that creates college community in the church. If such is lacking in a church, perhaps the local youth pastor can take a lead role in fostering such in their church. Some church styles make this more or less needy. Let us recognize the many fronts on which to strengthen the transition of our teen youth to the college years. Let us take youth ministry deeper in the Word of God to give students a more stable foundation for a stirring future. Let us network with ministries like Chi Alpha and LiveAbove.com to assist those youth headed for the secular university world. Let us promote and network with our A/G colleges and universities to help youth recognize the great higher education opportunities available in the context of Christ-centered campus community. Our AG colleges and universities total enrollment has seen a 36% increase from 1996 to 2006. Though it should be noted that a good portion of that is from outside AG circles. Could God be moving on the current generation in response to His praying church? Let us promote the excellent Masters Commission ministries about us. Many of our students need this intense discipleship training before venturing on to college, etc. Let us herald the need for more college & career ministry development in the local church. Students need a place to belong following youth group lest they find core community outside the church and face unnecessary faith challenges. For instance, Evangel Temple AG in Springfield, Missouri has a tremendous growth rate in post high school students attending the church. I attribute that to a well-trained college pastor on the church staff. Here are a few summary points to ponder and keep: Remember that our objective in youth ministry is not just to attract a crowd, but for students in the crowd to become life-long followers of Jesus. Understand that statistics (and even this article) need to be kept in context just like scripture. Read the study as well as the statistics to keep things in context. Don’t necessarily buy the “we’re losing two-thirds or more of our kids” storyline, but don’t be satisfied with any loss rate…whether it’s 10%, 30% or whatever percent! Statistics can be a tricky thing. Understand that the devil wants to intimidate you to fail through fear and guilt. Be proactive in transitioning students to young adults in the church. On behalf of the NYM directors and team, “never tire of doing what is right.” (2 Thessalonians 3:13b) Be faithful to the call. Know that you are not alone. We believe in you! Let us win, build and send students in Jesus Christ to fulfill the Great Commission. (Mt 28:19-20) Blessings,
Here is a resource listing for further study on this subject: Steve Henderson longitudinal study, The Impact Of Student Religion And College Affiliation On Student Religiosity. December 2003, www.christianconsulting.net. My Notes On The Steve Henderson Study . This is my own beginning thoughts on why the Steve Henderson study, which is a good longitudinal study in itself, should not be specified necessarily as a good authoritative study on “youth retention.” (go here to see PDF file) Matters Of Faith Find A New Prominence On Campus, New York Times, May 2, 2007, www.nytimes.com. Christian Smith, Evangelicals Behaving Badly With Statistics, ChristianityToday.com, January/February 2007. College Transition Project, Fuller Theological Seminary Center for Youth and Family Ministry, 2007, www.cyfm.net. National Study of Youth and Religion, www.youthandreligion.org. Assemblies of God Annual Church Ministries Report (ACMR), www.gensec.ag.org. |
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